Wednesday, January 11, 2006

NTV/Telelink Poll for NF & Lab. Ridings

So, NTV (Michael Conners to be precise) is back in the Blog again today. They aired a piece last night which dealt with how things are shaping up in all the ridings in Newfoundland and Labrador. Telelink, in partnership with the local station conducted a mini poll to determine where people stand so far. Michael also posted an article on the NTV website:

Poll shows high undecided rate, close race in Avalon
by Michael Connors
January 11, 2006

Incumbents lead in six of the province's seven districts, but the percentage of undecided voters remains high, an NTV/Telelink poll shows. In the seventh district, Avalon, the Liberals and Conservatives are in a dogfight for John Efford's old seat. Telelink polled 1,600 people from Jan. 5 to 9, before Monday night’s leaders’ debate; 39 per cent of respondents said they were undecided. For the 1,031 who had decided, the numbers broke down like this: 46.4% said they would vote Liberal, 40.5% would vote Conservative, 11.4% NDP and 1.7% for the Green Party. The margin of error is +/-3.1 percentage points 19 times out of 20. Telelink then broke down those numbers riding by riding, but be warned: the sample sizes are small, at about 150 respondents each, and so the margins of error are high, at +/-8 percentage points, and 10 percentage points for Labrador. In Labrador, 63.4% of respondents said they would vote for Liberal MP Todd Russell, putting him well ahead of Conservative Joe Goudie (25.7), New Democrat Jacob Larkin (9.9) and Green candidate Gail Zwicker (1.0). In Humber-St. Barbe-Baie Verte, Liberal Gerry Byrne has 51.9% support, ahead of Conservative Cyril Pelley (36.4) New Democrat Holly Pike (10.4) and Green candidate Martin Hanzelek (1.3). In Bonavista-Gander-Grand Falls-Windsor, Liberal Scott Simms has 52.2% support, compared to 40.1% for Conservative Aaron Hynes, both well ahead of New Democrat Sandra Cooze (6.4) and Green candidate Judy Davis (1.3). In Random-Burin-St. George’s, Liberal Bill Matthews has 55.6%support, ahead of Conservative Cynthia Downey (37.1), New Democrat Amanda Will (6.0) and Green candidate Mark Brennan (1.3). In St. John’s South-Mount Pearl, Conservative MP Loyola Hearn leads with 45.6% support, ahead of Liberal Siobhan Coady (35.6), Peg Norman of the NDP (18.1) and Barry Crozier of the Greens (0.6). St. John’s East is shaping up to be close, with Conservative Norm Doyle at 40.5%, compared to 35.9% for Liberal Paul Antle, putting them inside the statistical margin of error. Mike Kehoe is running for the NDP (19.0) and Stephen Harris for the Greens (4.6). In Avalon, the poll gives a slight edge to Conservative Fabian Manning at 46.8%, but right behind him is Liberal Bill Morrow at 44.2%, well within the margin of error and therefore a statistical dead heat. New Democrat Eugene Conway has 7.7% support and Shannon Hillier of the Greens has 1.3%.

Just to recap the results with regards to the Greens, here's what it looks like.

1.7% Province Wide
1.0% Labrador
1.3% Humber - St. Barbe - Baie Verte
1.3% Bonavista - Gander - Grand Falls - Windsor
1.3% Random - Burin - St. George's
0.6% St. John's South - Mount Pearl
1.3% Avalon
4.6% St. John's East

I'll be back to post about the forum last night in a little while. I have to go watch NTV news first.

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